Friday, November 25, 2011

我們究竟出口了什麼?

(This article is based, in part, on the English article "Does Asia export too much")

許多人相信一個國家出口愈多就表示愈有競爭力,其實這種認知不全然正確。盲目追求大量貿易盈餘的做法,實際上對國家經濟的長遠發展十分不利。

所謂出口是就將商品賣到國外,好的貿易是指將商品以高利潤賣給外國消費者,但所有的出口真的都能獲利嗎?舉例來說,假設一個國家以負10%利潤率出口100億元等值的高科技產品,雖然擁有100億元的貿易出口額,但國家的財富卻減少10億元。該國持有的外匯儲備雖然增加100億元,但人民財富卻相對減少;所以,當利潤不佳時,出口愈多國家反而會變得愈窮。

在瞭解出口本質的邏輯後,我們應該以不同的角度來檢視匯率政策與貿易盈餘。當國家執行廉價匯率政策以推動出口貿易的成長,雖然可望增加該國的外匯儲備,但無法直接轉換成為國家財富的累積增長。為能瞭解廉價匯率政策的利益與成本,因此必須聚焦在與出口相關的「機會成本」,以及因廉價匯率所造成的「資源配置扭曲」的問題上。其實廉價的匯率政策,通常會導致該國的珍貴資源,被國外消費者以低於市場合理的價格所耗盡。

商品是結合各種生產因素所製造而成的,例如:勞力、原物料、金融資本、有形資本(土地、製造工廠及工業設備)、智慧財產權與環境資本(水、空氣和土地的汙染);當一個國家將商品出口至海外,實際上是將生產要素賣給外國人,並換取外國貨幣。外國貨幣其實就是外國政府的負債,未來可以用來交換外國的商品;不過前提是這些外幣不會貶值,且外國政府不會發生債務違約。

當國家推動廉價匯率政策以刺激出口,實際上是以低於市場公平價格將本國的生產要素賣給外國人,使得國內商品及服務資源供給減少。同時,廉價匯率也使國內消費者買不起國外商品,因而降低進口量,對國內所有的商品價格產生推升壓力。

廉價匯率政策最顯著的影響是推高國內物價通膨,這種現象在幾個以出口為導向的國家都曾經歷過,包括日本、台灣及韓國等;目前中國嚴峻的國內通貨膨脹問題,廉價匯率政策就是主因之一。當一個新興經濟體在出口其多餘的勞動力、土地和環境資本時,總會經歷一段貨幣逐步升值時期。但新興國家的發展通常是採取廉價貨幣政策,以求降低國內失業率,並提升與全球經濟貿易接軌;其結果使得貨幣的升值速度,較之自由市場機制來得緩慢。

廉價匯率所導致的價格通膨,本質上並非財政問題,亦非寬鬆貨幣所產生的結果;因此,不能也不應透過緊縮貨幣與信用供給的手段來處理。這種價格通膨的本質,是因為生產資源過度的配置於出口產業,並造成進口的障礙。要對抗這種價格通膨,必須聚焦在增加國內生產和減少進口障礙政策上。更高的信用額度和更低的利率可以協助及刺激內需產業,可有效降低因中國國內生產不足而導致的通膨壓力。

但中國在面對這種高通膨,卻以持續調升利率及對企業施行信貸配給政策來做因應,可預期到這種政策將使內需供給進一步萎縮,使物價持續高漲並使通膨問題更惡化。在經過一段積極的信用緊縮時期之後,中國可透過引發衰退和破壞需求來遏止價格上揚;然而,抑制價格通膨的良性政策,其實應聚焦於增加內需的供給。

台灣曾經享受過巨額貿易順差所帶來的好處,但也因此付出不少的社會成本及珍貴資源的消耗。隨著國民所得的日益提升以及人口外移與老齡化下造成的勞動力遞減,以往的出口導向型經濟政策需因時制宜加以改變,藉由匯率政策的調整,以及均衡外銷與內需產業的經濟發展政策,才能使台灣經濟更加穩健地成長。

作者: 許仲翔

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