Friday, December 30, 2011

我們應該關心失業率麼?

(This article is based, in part, on the English article "Are we worried about the wrong unemployment number?")

近兩年來大多數的政治辭令,都集中在創造就業上。然而,社會大眾似乎並不清楚測量失業率的標準,各種失業率數據背後真正的意義,以及造成失業的原因。我是否真的應該如此的關心失業率?  而我們又應該關心哪一種失業率?M 字型的社會,大學生與碩士生面臨的就業困難與社會新鮮人日益衰退的起薪,這是高居不下的循環性失業所衍生出的問題,還是過去20年不斷盤升的結構性失業所造成的問題? 


失業率的定義
首先,我們應該了解兩種計算失業率的方法。一般聽到的失業率數據,是指”有求職意願與能力”但卻無法獲得工作機會的勞動者(非自願性失業) 。另外一種失業率,是指處於工作年齡階段但沒有參與工作的人口,這數據也被稱為“未參與勞動比率”。前者衡量找尋工作的困難程度,而後者衡量經濟發展對勞動力的需求。在美國,失業率是9%而未參與勞動比率為30%,這表示處於勞動年齡階段的人有21%是屬於自願性或結構性失業;自願性失業者是因為升學或從事家管,而結構性失業則是因為勞動技能過低,缺乏能力謀職,必須靠社會福利救濟過活。 

常態性(結構性)失業
一般先進國家都出現接近15%並逐年盤升的結構性失業率。現代化的生產過程中,低技能勞動力已逐漸被科技所取代,這種替代雖然使整個社會更具生產力,卻也意謂著對低階勞動力需求下降。在此框架下,結構性失業率不斷成長是因為人類智能進化無法超越科技發展的速度。

打個比方:想像科學家發明了親切版本的魔鬼終結者機器人,除了這些科學家之外,其他人將因為無法與機器人競爭而出現常態性失業。然而,從產值的角度來看,社會將呈現前所未有的繁榮;政府並不需要為高失業率而擔心,因為政府將有取之不盡的資源來發放社會福利服務失業者。 

非自願性(循環性)失業
非自願性(循環性)失業,通常是指那些曾經在職場上活躍,且擁有現代化勞動技能的人。高漲的非自願性失業率,通常是受到經濟景氣不佳的衝擊;動盪的經濟會使得公司縮衣節食,引發負面的反饋影響,使得薪資及就業機會遞減。非自願性失業高漲的年代,幾乎總是GDP成長停滯的年代、也是政府稅收不足的年代、股票套牢的年代、房價下跌與信貸緊縮的年代。

除了失業者會遭受痛苦之外,國家整體的經濟、財富及生活水準也承受非常明顯的衰退。因此,非自願失業率應該被看作是經濟衰退的信號,而不只是一個狹隘的就業數據。 

創造就業vs.永久福利
因為常態性及非自願性失業的本質迥異,政府所採取的政策也必須有所差異、對症下藥。實際上循環性失業的情況較易處理,在經濟衰退期間,採取凱因斯提倡的寬鬆政策刺激經濟,避免銀根緊縮壓迫企業營運並緩衝失業率攀升,及透過失業津貼協助待業者,這都是改善就業衝擊非常明智的解決之道。

但如何照顧被科技所取代的常態性失業人口,則頗具爭議性。若是提供這些結構性失業勞工長期的社會救濟,這有可能誘使其他有工作能力的人,放棄勞動來取得救濟,使原本福利政策的美意衍生出嚴重的道德危機問題。提供更多社會救濟總是熱門的選舉支票,古今中外皆是如此。政客答應提供的福利,絕大多數是出於政治謀略而非出於經濟的實質考量;也就是說經過幾輪的選戰之後,政府所提供的福利水平,一般會大幅高於合乎穩定經濟發展的福利水平。當政府提供超高水平的社會福利給予結構性失業勞工,這將會提高態性失業率──這會使得體智健全的個人,放棄學習就業技能並選擇自願性失業。提供優渥的社會救濟首先會增加政府支出;連帶造成的態性失業率遞增也將使徵收的所得稅收減少;兩者將導致財政失衡。

就以上的論點看來,先進國家的常態性失業救濟產生的不良誘因的問題,並不只是會造成某部分體智健全的勞工放棄就業,真正的道德危機是讓有心的政客,能夠利用福利政策來進行合法的選舉買票,最終造成國家財政敗壞。

作者: 許仲翔 

工商時報: http://money.chinatimes.com/news/news-content.aspx?id=20120111001249&cid=1206

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