Sunday, November 4, 2012

為何我們不願再平衡?

Rebalance,即投資組合再平衡,是指投資組合歷經一段時間的市場波動後,將失衡的各個資產配置調回原始比例的操作。研究顯示,再平衡具有明顯的長期利益;然而,絕大多數投資人並不會將他們的投資組合重新調整,也就是低價買入、高價出售。實際上,許多投資者的行為卻是反其道而行,這個行為令專家充滿疑惑。

投資人為何難以對投資組合再平衡呢?原因並非出在不理性行為,而是有些理智的投資者,更關心那些將投資報酬最大化的其他事情上。因為投資者表現出風險趨避的心態,使他們很難再平衡投入到高報酬的資產上,也就是那些價格已經跌深的資產上。投資顧問和金融學者發現︰不願意低買高賣不僅是一般人投資人的特點,就算是經驗豐富的機構投資者,也容易犯同樣的錯誤。
為何要再平衡?
金融研究的一個重要發現顯示︰資產價格的長期走勢會出現均值回歸(mean-reversion)。因此,當一個資產的價格下跌,使資產的估值相對于歷史水準更具吸引力,也就是未來將有更高的投報率。例如︰當S&P500指數價格下跌,股息收益率增加;就經驗而言,S&P500指數在接下來五年內的報酬將高於平均值。相同地,當公司債的價格隨著信貸利差(credit spreads)驟增而下降,則公司債未來的投報率將增加。從資產投報率的價格均值回歸顯示︰從長遠來看,對資產配置的估值變化採取嚴謹的再平衡方法,將可提高投資組合的投報率。
如果再平衡有如此優良的投資優勢,為何投資人不願意採取這個低買高賣的投資策略?研究顯示︰我們看待風險的態度在某種程度上會受到我們財富水準的影響,並因此影響我們對於再平衡的決策。確切地說,當投資組合財富減少時,投資者會愈來愈懼怕風險,那麼儘管價格很低他們都不願再冒險;反之當投資組合財富增加時,投資者愈來愈喜歡冒險,那麼即使價格再高他們也很樂意冒險投機。
下面將更加具體地解釋這種行為。設想一個有穩定收入和財富的家庭,收入及財富狀況決定了這個家庭的生活水準與消費模式。當經濟出現正面的刺激,例如GDP激增或公司盈利增加,則股票價格上漲;一系列正面的經濟因素形成股票牛市,投資者的財富亦隨之增長。市場環境也呈現低失業率、強勁的薪資增長、豐厚的獎金和房地產增值等特徵。
投資獲利及穩定富足的收入,提供這個家庭計畫外的度假、換購大房子以及/或提早退休等選擇。家庭收入變多及大幅增加的財富,允許他們在不影響生活水準和退休計畫的情況下,能夠承擔更大的投資風險。投資者將新獲得的財富視為意外之財,如同在賭場贏得的賭資。通常,投資者會將此意外之財進行投機;這與一個賭徒在一場瘋狂的賭注中成為贏家,並開始大肆揮霍沒有什麼不同。賭資效應可以解釋,為何投資人在股票價格大漲後,並不急於再平衡的原因,儘管價格升高將明顯地降低未來的投報率。
相反地,當市場遭遇負面的經濟襲擊,所產生的熊市會摧毀許多家庭的財富。熊市通常伴隨著高失業率、低薪資、無分紅和不景氣,並使得房價下跌。收入減少和財富損失,對家庭生活造成重大威脅。的確,投資組合價值的任何損失,對一個家庭的生活水準和退休計畫,都將產生永久的、令人不悅的影響。財富驟降可能意味著投資者再也無法負擔孩子的大學教育費用,更糟的是要賣掉自己的房子,或是把退休計畫延後幾年。無庸置疑地,投資人開始厭惡風險,不管資產價格有多誘人也不願再冒投資風險。

機構投資受託人(institutional investment fiduciary)也有類似的行為。在市場大跌後(通常伴隨著較低的利率,用以提高退休基金資產的市場價值),退休基金很可能出現資金短缺;退休金積蓄率(funding ratio)更進一步的下跌趨勢,將會引發強制性供款(mandatory contribution)或者其他不利投資人的監管機制。此外,人們在艱困時期更加容易責怪他人,個人財富的巨大損失讓工作上壓力更加沉重。當下的環境不能容忍任何短期的負面結果,即使這種負面結果是因長期高報酬的明智投資所造成的。因此,投資受託人在經歷了熊市後更加害怕承擔風險;即使有更好的投資報酬,但因為股價劇跌後,他們無意願再平衡至風險性資產。
風險溢酬或是免費午餐?
強烈的證據顯示,天真的投資人會追逐趨勢,例如︰他們對最近一連串好或壞的消息過度地推斷,並且在資訊不足的情況下追價,導致不理智的買賣行為;這使得價格脫離它們合理的價值,也同時為別人創造超額收益的機會。事實上,那些被認為經驗老道的投資者,其實也好不了多少,他們獲取免費午餐的能力並未特別獨到。隨著時間變化的風險規避,是交易週期和股票牛熊市週期所形成的自然結果。理智的投資者,在股市下跌時懼怕風險,而不敢購入那些價格吸引人的股票;在股市上揚時過度地追求風險,而不會減少持有那些未來投報率較不吸引人的股票。結果,股票(以及其他更廣的資產類別)的價格均值回歸,並未讓理性的投資者套取利益。
價格均值回歸所產生的投資報酬,經常被稱為再平衡報酬。當投資者再平衡至價格下跌的資產,並遠離安全的資產;也就是他們再平衡至未來高報酬的資產,並遠離未來低報酬的資產。久而久之會產生較佳的投資組合績效,並優於買入並持有策略(buy-and-hold approach)。因為天真投資者的過度論斷,以及理智投資者的隨著時間變化之風險規避,這兩種特性使得再平衡的報酬,被視為免費午餐風險溢價的一部分。免費午餐是來自沒有經驗投資者的錯誤交易行為,風險溢價是來自於承受更多無法忍受的市場風險。
你應該再平衡嗎?
如果說為何我們不再平衡?這個問題很難回答,那麼你應該再平衡嗎?這個問題就更難回答。就統計上,若你對重大的價格變動做出相應的再平衡,長遠看來你很有可能績效優異。然而,當你在經濟不景氣時購買了風險資產,在這段過渡期間有很高的機率,你的投資組合很可能遭受比不做再平衡更慘烈的損失。在短期看來,當你進行再平衡,身為投資受託人的你被開除的機率、被客戶責怪的機率以及導致夫妻間爭執的機率,都會變得較高。
所以,誰應該再平衡呢?如果與你的消費需求比起來,你是過份地儲蓄,那麼再平衡及相關的短期風險並不會威脅到你的生活水準,再平衡對於喜歡儲蓄的人來說是個極好的策略。如果你在一個隻關注長期投資績效、不在意短期波動的機構工作,那麼再平衡對你來說是個很好策略。此外,你最好要記住凱恩斯的偉大見解︰市場處於不理性的時間,比你我擁有工作與幸福婚姻的時間還來的長。
因此,即使投資者確信資產報酬中存在著價格均值回歸,他也不一定會進行再平衡。歐洲股票,特別是金融類股票的價格被大打折扣──為投資者提供了前所未有的收益及較高的預期報酬。你是否會懷著堅定的信念,將再平衡至歐洲股票?或金融類股票?我們經歷了與投資相關的恐懼不安,我們不敢買進相對便宜的歐股,並非因為我們有較好的能力去預測歐盟的失序解體。畢竟資產的價格,在很大程度上受華爾街操盤手和避險基金經理人的規範,反映了所有與風險相關的情境和機率。在訊息不對秤的競爭下,我們並沒有特別的能力去預測未來股價的波動;我們不敢再平衡,是因為我們並非是刻版追求投資報酬率最大化的投資人。
因為我們只是凡夫俗子,我們在做投資並尋求良好的長期報酬之前,會再三考慮其他各種與投資無關的個人風險因素,這也就是為何我們不做再平衡。或許這就是為何學者專家們現在會大力推薦制度化再平衡(institutionalized rebalancing)”,也就是要讓再平衡變成退休金管理的制度的一部分,而不是讓投資官員和基金受託人做決定。雖然人類擁有任何電腦都不及的智慧與學習的能力,但遺憾的是,我們卻比一套簡單的定期再平衡的程式還不善於長期報酬的管理,因為我們的風險意識不僅多變,且經常是受到與投資無關的外在環境影響而更令其捉摸不定。

作者: 許仲翔 

上海證券報: http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/t/20121015/012613364066.shtml
  

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